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The New York Times is reporting this morning that the Chinese government may be losing its ability and desire to support low interest rates in the United States by continuing to purchase treasury notes in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Just as President elect Obama has stated, the economy 'could become dramatically worse.' News from overseas lends credence to our dilemma. The NYT quotes Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist in the Hong Kong office of the Royal Bank of Scotland: "All the key drivers of China's Treasury purchases are disappearing - there's a waning appetite for dollars and a waning appetite for Treasuries, and that complicates the outlook for interest rates."

Under normal conditions, during the last decade China has acquired over a trillion dollars of our debt and kept it. This has supported the dollar, kept us buying their goods, and in turn propelled the rapid growth of the Chinese economy. Fitch Ratings, the credit rating agency, forecasts that China's foreign reserves will increase by $177 billion this year. However, this would be a large drop from an estimated $415 billion accumulated last year.

If we keep hearing about companies that are "too big to fail" what in the world are we doing allowing Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) to swallow up everything in their financial path so that they can become even bigger, potentially creating the next catastrophe!

During my tenure at BloggingStocks I have made some bonehead calls and some that were more astute. Among my better calls was the story I wrote 20 months ago, Break up Citigroup as soon as possible, and the follow on story a year later when nothing had changed: Citigroup should hire forensic auditors. My colleagues Peter Cohan and Douglas McIntyre made similar points.

Given these stories and the dialog I have had with many of our intelligent and equally frustrated readers, I have had thoughts of starting a non-profit organization to shadow the Securities and Exchange Commission that has been dormant for the last ten years. Instead of hiring Wall Street types to run the SEC we might do better hiring inquisitive university students, and not from the business or law schools, but the accounting, journalism and criminology programs.

In a recent post Chasing Value: United Parcel -- forgotten blue chip I praised United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) and included a comment about something my UPS carrier had said to me about the company laying off 10% of the local carriers.

While receiving a positive response for the post from Mr. Michael French of UPS, he went on to correct me and wrote "I wanted to make sure that you are aware that no layoffs have been announced, and that makes the statement in your blog about a layoff of 10 percent of our drivers inaccurate."

I questioned my carrier in more detail and he did in fact confirm that there was no formal layoff announced, only that there were discussions locally about cutting back the forces and he was cavalier in saying it might be as much as 10%. Given the opportunity to recant he speculated the layoffs might be 3% to 4% and the exact number has not been determined.

We start the new year with the disappearance of two household names in the financial world, Merrill Lynch which sold itself to Bank of America, (NYSE: BAC) fearing the worst of the broadly deteriorating financial markets; and Wachovia that not only feared the worst but lived through it only long enough to be acquired by Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC). Both transactions completed yesterday while the market was closed.

The market has been up all day and both BAC and WFC can be upbeat as two of the world's survivors of the 2008 minefields that blew up some of the largest and most revered names in many generations.

The BAC deal propels it to be the No. 1 financial institution in the United States with about $2.7 trillion in assets. Merrill Lynch ends a 94 year run. Earlier in the year BAC acquired Countrywide Financial. These two deals allow Bank of America to stand tall as he largest originator and servicing company for new loans, just when home refinancing may take off based on new lower rates becoming available. It may be able to expand financial services when the world is hoping for even a modest recovery.

Anybody have capital gains to show this year? I didn't think so. Not unless you were shorting the market, and in particular financials. I got clobbered with everyone else. There were not many places to hide. Picking winners was like guessing where each piece of debris would land after the tornado moved through town.

The average crystal ball is looking quite foggy about now, nevertheless I have rummaged throughout the stock market to select nine stocks that I think offer more reward than risk. The market is priced for the worst in so many cases that I think the list could have included 50 companies without too much trouble.

In 2007 and 2008 I owned some but not all of the picks for the year. This year I own all of the stocks and they were all acquired in the latter part of the fourth quarter for a new portfolio.

Sometime in the future the economy will recover, maybe not with staggering gains, but it will recover. Ah, but you ask when? Well, trying to forecast that, would really be sticking my neck out.

If you are an avid reader then you have seen some predictions that speak of a recovery in the spring and some that push it out as far as 2011. Tough business that prediction business.

All that is well and good, but let me get to something that I do feel comfortable predicting, or at least repeating the daily news: UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE GETTING A LOT WORSE in 2009. Who will benefit from this? I expect the church pews and bar stools will be in full use. I also think pawn shops, those lenders of last resort (excepting your local loan shark) will be doing a booming business.

The two most prominent pawn shops that are expanding organically and by acquisition are Cash America (NYSE: CSH) and EZCorp Inc. (NASDAQ: EZPW). Both are down this year but beating the indices by a fair margin.

This morning I had a pleasant conversation with Brian Begley, Vice President, Investor relations for Atlas Energy Resources (NYSE: ATN), a gas exploration company set up as a Limited Liability Company. Although it is an LLC it operates similar to a Master Lease Partnership (MLP); according to their website: ATN pays cash distributions each quarter, which represent a return of invested capital to each common unit-holder. Therefore, these distributions are tax-deferred until the units are sold or the unit-holder's basis goes below zero, whichever occurs first.

In English this means that if you were to invest $10,000 in the shares you would not pay taxes until you sell the shares or get back in excess of the $10,000 and only pay taxes on the overage.

Brian gets high marks for being very straight forward in answering all of my questions. He was upbeat about the company as you would expect but I do not think he was sugar coating anything nor was he ever evasive and I asked some very direct questions. I have to give credit for my initial attraction to this stock to the Motley Fools and their story 5-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: Atlas Energy

The 5-Stars refers to the sites "Caps" rating system by participants that vote for the stocks they favor. A majority of the stock pickers on this site believe there is a high probability the stock will be a winner. I was drawn to it for more practical reasons then looking for ratings systems or analysts calls. The stock has been paying about a 20% yield and that's some serious cash even if it goes nowhere.

Since the stock market is down so much I have been buying something in the fourth quarter almost every week. I have been patient and have been expanding my watch list. The difficulty for me is that I feel like almost everything is on sale -- but is everything a bargain?

Maybe not; maybe I'm delusional. Perhaps that is because I am tuned into another time and place when I would have been dancing in the streets if I were able to acquire Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) or General Electric (NYSE: GE) for pennies on the dollar. Maybe that is all these stocks are worth? That is what Wall Street currently thinks. That is what Main Street currently thinks. There is a lot more bad news than good.

Then why is Warren Buffett buying, and Carl Icahn and Ken Heebner? After all, I'm just following in their shadows.

The reason is that most investors are simply focused on all the bad news. That is what has most folks' attention and that is making the market -- bankruptcies, billions of dollars in losses, government out of control, Wall Street out of control and more. There is also serious fear things will get worse. If you lost money in the stock market (all of us), or lost your job or your house or any combination of the above, then things look bleak and for now they are. However, we should not be investing for now; we should be investing for the future.

Consider the following elements that support a recovery in the next year. I do not mean a boom, just a recovery -- just a more positive investing environment.

1) By spring it is estimated the government will have poured $2 trillion dollars into an economy of $13 trillion over a 12-month period. Not only is this a market stimulus, but it may prove to be highly inflationary, and if so equities are a better place to be then cash.

The New York Times has reported: The last Chevrolet Tahoe rolled off the line here in Janesville shortly after 7 a.m. in the 90-year-old plant, which had built more than 3.7 million big S.U.V.'s since the early 1990s. While the overall new vehicle market has dropped 16 percent so far this year, sales of big S.U.V.'s have plummeted 40 percent. Their closings leave the Big Three with only one factory each still devoted to making traditional big S.U.V.'s - Ford Motor (NYSE: F) in Kentucky, General Motors (NYSE: GM) in Texas, and Chrysler in Detroit.

The car manufacturers have been hit hard by tight consumer credit, the high cost of fuel and an overall slowing of the economy. All three manufacturers have been pleading with Congress and the White House for financial support and with the UAW for contract concessions. After Two of the three (Congress and UAW) failed to act, President Bush stepped in to provide an aid package of $17 billion to get the auto companies through the first quarter of 2009.

Despite the rescue package finally coming through Wall Street has not been impressed. The stocks of GM (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) are down 35% since the announcement. Ford closed yesterday at $2.19, down -0.40, losing -15.44% in one day. GM closed at $3.00, down -0.52, losing -14.77%.

Can either of these companies avoid bankruptcy if they cannot stay off the pink sheets? Is bankruptcy inevitable? Are you buying these stocks with hopes of a recovery?

When oil prices were rising quarter after quarter through July of this year -- topping $147 per barrel -- it was very problematic for United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) to run its television commercials bragging they had the largest fleet of planes and trucks in the world.

Fuel prices that hurt the economy have hurt UPS more. The stock is down from the high $80s a few years ago to the current lows closing Monday at $52.77. It is trading below its 2001 IPO price after averaging around $70 for most of its "public life."

Just about every business journal is coming out with its stock picks for 2009, and among them are many blue chip stocks. These include familiar names like General Electric (NYSE: GE) Chasing Value: Add General Electric to the list, Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), to name a few.

While I was reading this weekend I saw a UPS ad and realized that nobody was directing investor attention to this fine company.

That got me thinking. UPS has a clean balance sheet, great cash flow and is AAA rated. The company has weathered the high fuel prices and reduced business. UPS itself has become a valuable barometer over the years to measure the state of the economy and I often check with our carrier about his business traffic. On Friday he said they were laying off 10% of the drivers but he would be above the cut.

Two years ago I assembled a list of stocks for 2007 and last year I did the same for 2008. The first list remains ahead of the market while the latter did poorer than the market at last check. In both cases I owned many of the stocks. In putting together the 2009 list I am doing something different. I own all the stocks in a new portfolio aggregated in the last quarter of this year.

All of them have been written up already. I discussed this in Chasing Value: Annaly Capital Mgmt -- from watch list to buy and later in Chasing Value: Add General Electric to the list. Now I am adding four more stocks to the list which will be completed before the last trading day of this year. All of them have appeared in my Chasing Value column.

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) and Diageo plc (NYSE: DEO) were discussed in Chasing Value: Oil & Booze -- Anadarko & Diageo.

For my view of Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) See: Chasing Value: Anglo American on sale and Chasing Value: Inflation protection with gold & platinum (AAUK).

I have written about Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) many times. In the first quarter I wrote Chasing Value: Wells Fargo may look like a steal in 12 months and most recently I wrote Chasing Value: Wells Fargo the pogo stick.

Trillions of dollars have been introduced into the world economy since last July, when I thought it would be interesting to jump in and pick stocks prior to the carnage in the financial sector taking complete hold.

For the past eight months our government has been taking over financial institutions, absorbing debt, lowering interest rates, nationalizing some private companies, investing in others, and rebating taxes through stimulus packages to increase liquidity and spending. The Federal Reserve has essentially dropped the interest to zero.

The government was the last to announce that we are in a recession. Well, duh! However, recession or not the world is still open for business although less of it. Gold is down 30% from it's highs and oil having totally collapsed from $147 a barrel at the time of the original story to the low $30's now.

The original story was Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials -- buying into a pool of financial stocks at a time when these stocks went unloved by all.

Eight of the ten financial stocks I wrote about are down or out at this point. When I last reported, the portfolio was losing 47% but it has sunk to new lows now standing at a loss of 58.56%. This compares to a drop in the S&P 500 of 29% or half the loss.

There are many analysts suggesting that we finally have arrived at the time to invest in financial stocks. Perhaps that is true, but do you invest in the downtrodden or the blue chips?

A spokesman for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) Thomas Kelly said his firm has not disclosed what it did with the $25 billion in emergency bailout money it has received. In fact, JPMorgan Chase is declining to provide any such disclosure.

AP has reported that none of the 21 banks that received $1 billion or more from taxpayers is tracking, or at least willing to disclose how they are using the money. Let me be clear -- THIS STINKS TO THE HIGH HEAVENS!

What kind of deals did Treasury Secretary Paulson make with these favored financial institutions? The money would be very easy to track. Why wouldn't that be a part of the bargain?

Paulson obviously did not read Conservative bankers? Surely you jest!, but he should have. Of course, having former Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) CEO Paulson negotiate with his Wall Street buddies on behalf of the taxpayer is highly suspect. At a minimum we have the good 'ol boy network operating in full form.

The banks simply are avoiding what should be required scrutiny by pleading ignorance. I don't believe the money can't be tracked, or even traced now after the fact. What happened to the idea of more transparency? More cover up I fear!

The banks should be subject to full disclosure. The use of the funds should be subject to review. Government money should be subject to the Freedom of Information Act. Why all the secrecy?

PS: Personal emails I have been receiving and the initial comments indicate strong sentiment about this issue. I encourage those that care to forward this story to their elected officials and friends encouraging full disclosure -- as promised! Obama used the internet to help win the White House, lets use it to get someone to listen with an internet blast from all over the country!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture and planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

It occurred to me while responding to a comment in my Chasing Value column that there are some basic necessities in life that we do not normally think of as such. The discussion had to do with finding those intrinsic or basic things a company (stock) produces that might reduce investor risk or help establish basic value.

Food and water clearly matter to everyone, and you could add energy, but until the economy freezes up like it has the past year, you might not appreciate the importance of credit.

The single biggest reason that car dealers say they cannot move anything off the lot is a lack of consumer credit. People have tapped out their credit cards and home equity lines, and probably their friends and family by now -- so it is all pay as you go. The going is rough and the going is slow.

The Federal Reserve has now reduced the overnight rate to nothing in an effort to get financial institutions to free up some of their capital and to lend to each other. They have also been trying to push mortgage rates down. They were successful in doing so because many lenders have offered me rates under 5% for 30-year fixed mortgages just this past week.

For 2009 I will be tracking a real portfolio created this quarter in scary times, when everyone is second guessing themselves, the market, and the economy. Last week I wrote Chasing Value: Annaly Capital Mgmt -- from watch list to buy noting that Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) was acquired, for among other things its 15% yield and basic stability. It trounced the market in 2008, but the yield by itself was very rewarding and I expect that to continue.

Yesterday General Electric (NYSE: GE) dropped over 8% from $17.39 to $15.96. This triggered a buy order I had in at $16.00, after a negative outlook by rating agency Standard & Poors suggested that there was the potential that GE could lose its prized AAA rating sometime in the next two years based on stress it was feeling on its balance sheet related to its financial services division, and GE's uncertainty in other businesses.